Poster Appendix

Poster Appendix – Uncertainty as a signal of competence

SPSP 2019

 

Manipulation text:

S1:

"The high tomorrow will definitely be between 40 degrees and 54 degrees.”

"The high temperature tomorrow will definitely be exactly 47 degrees."

S2:

"I am 60% confident that the high temperature tomorrow will be within one degree of 60."

"I am 95% confident that the high temperature tomorrow will be within one degree of 60."

S3:

"Team A will probably win, but it's tough to call at this point."

"Team A will definitely win. There's no way they can lose."

 

Epistemicness scale (EARS)[1]

A (aleatory items) reverse-coded, results averaged.

7-point scale bounded by “very much” and “not at all”.

 

A1 ... is something that has an element of randomness.

A3  ... is determined by chance factors.

A4  ... could play out in different ways on similar occasions.

E3  ... is knowable in advance, given enough information.

E4  ... is something that well-informed people would agree on.

E6 ... is something that becomes more predictable with additional knowledge or skills.

 

Advice/advisor quality

Results averaged.

First two items: 7-point scale bounded by “very much” and “not at all”.

Third item: 7 point scale bounded by “lowest quality” and “highest quality”.

 

"How competent is this advisor?"

"How much do you trust this advisor?”

"Please rate the quality of this advice.”



[1] Fox CR, Tannenbaum D, Ülkümen G (2016) The empirical case for distinguishing two dimensions of subjective uncertainty. Working paper.

 

Comments